Selasa, 12 April 2011

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Ask the accountant: How can I avoid being audited?

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 09:00 AM PDT

This series is brought to you by TurboTax Home & Business Edition – Guides You to Your Biggest Tax Refund. As always, VentureBeat is adamant about maintaining editorial objectivity. TurboTax had no involvement in the content of this post.

Ask the AccountantThis week’s tax query:

“What steps can I take on my individual tax returns to avoid being audited this year?”

We posed this question to Wonsun Willey, a tax partner with Sensiba San Filippo LLP. Here’s her answer:

The IRS is auditing more frequently now than they have in previous years, so it’s a good idea to review your individual returns for anything that might raise a red flag. In addition to the usual safeguards like checking your math and saving the appropriate documentation, this year be sure to take a second glance at how you’ve presented your real estate activities.

The IRS is giving extra scrutiny right now to people with rental properties who continuously claim losses and individuals who identify themselves as real estate professional but don’t qualify as such under the IRS’s definition. The feds are particularly wary of people who rent out their second homes to friends and family for short portions of the year and treat it like a more traditional rental property when it comes to tax time. In summary: if you own rental property, be extra careful with your returns this year.

If you have questions about how to handle these issues, be sure to consult a qualified tax professional.

From now through April 15, VentureBeat will be taking your tax and accounting questions and getting you expert answers. You can send us a question by email, leave one in the comments below, or reach us by Twitter or on Facebook or Quora.

Our sponsor encourages you to read these related links. VentureBeat had no input in the selection of these stories.
Filing a business tax extension, Business use of vehicles, What tax forms to file as a first-time business owner, What does healthcare reform law mean for businesses?





HTC’s Sensation 4G is another dual-core powerhouse for T-Mobile

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 08:40 AM PDT

HTC Sensation 4GHot on the heels of T-Mobile's recently announced G2x superphone, the carrier has landed another dual-core CPU powerhouse with HTC's Sensation 4G,  which was just made official today.

The G2x and Sensation 4G represent a wave of powerful new handsets that will make their way to T-Mobile this year. Even though AT&T will likely finalize its acquisition of the carrier next year, that's not stopping T-Mobile from tempting away subscribers with powerful new hardware.

Spec-wise, the Sensation 4G shares quite a bit with HTC's Evo 3D – meaning it's a beast. It sports a 4.3-inch Super LCD screen (which offers higher quality than typical LCD phone screens), 1.2 gigahertz dual-core Snapdragon processor, HTC Sense 3.0 and it will also run Android 2.3 Gingerbread. The Sensation offers a better camera than the Evo 3D — 8 megapixels versus the Evo's 5 megapixel pair of cameras — and it can also shoot 1080p high-definition video at 30 frames per second.

The Sensation 4G will support T-Mobile's HSPA+ 4G network with download speeds of up to 14.4 megabits per second, and upload speeds of 5.76 Mbps. That's honestly the only disappointing thing about the Sensation, since T-Mobile has already rolled out 21 Mbps 4G service in several cities, and has also started delivering whopping fast 42 Mbps service in a select few markets.

The new version of HTC Sense will bring a slew of new features including 3D screen transitions, highly customizable lock screens, and access to HTC Watch, the company's movie download service.

The Sensation 4G is expected to hit T-Mobile this summer in the US, and will launch in mid-May across Europe.

Via Engadget

VB Mobile SummitCalling all mobile executives: This April 25-26, VentureBeat is hosting its inaugural VentureBeat Mobile Summit, where we’ll debate the five key business and policy challenges facing the mobile industry today. Participants will develop concrete, actionable solutions that will shape the future of the mobile industry. The invitation-only event, located at the scenic and relaxing Cavallo Point Resort in Sausalito, Calif., is limited to 180 mobile executives, investors and policymakers. We’ve pretty much finalized the invite list, but have a few spots left. Request an invitation.

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Vudu’s streaming movies head to your web browser

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 07:40 AM PDT

Vudu Streaming ServiceOn-demand streaming video service Vudu is adding support for web browsers to their already long list of platforms their customers can access content which includes televisions, Blu-ray players, the Playstation 3 and over 300 other devices.

With competition from Netflix, Hulu and Amazon it will be interesting to see how Vudu differentiates its own streaming video service.

The streaming video website will feature the same titles found on the digital storefront of all Vudu-connected devices. However, higher quality video and 3D versions of films, which may have been a big selling point to win customers to their service, won’t be available through a browsers.

Still, there is plenty of potential for the Wal-Mart-owned company to elbow their way into what’s becoming a crowded market where price points are already very low or free for content across the board.

Vudu doesn’t plan on stopping with Web browsers though. They plan to add support on any device that can connect to the internet, but more specifically tablet computing, according to a report from CNET.

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Scoutmob lands $1.5M more for location-based group deals

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 07:38 AM PDT

Scoutmob, a location-based group deals company, plans to announce tomorrow that it has secured a first round of funding for $1.5 million, according to New Atlantic Ventures representatives, who led the funding. The new funding will be used to roll out its deal service to new cities, continue development and hire more employees.

The company appears to be an interesting mix of a group buying site, like Groupon or LivingSocial, and location-based deal service, like Foursquare or Facebook Places. Users can visit the company’s website and agree to receive email notifications for deals, or download the iPhone or Android applications. When a deal is available, the user can either send to their phone via text or access the deal within the application. To redeem, the user simple goes to that merchant’s location and shows them the deal on their phone.

Unlike traditional group buying sites where users have to buy the digital coupon upfront, Scoutmob creates coupons that are free to users. The company makes its money by charging the merchant when a coupon is redeemed, which is tracked by the GPS in a user’s phone.

In addition to the funding, Scoutmob also announced its expansion to 10 more cities across the U.S, including Austin, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Nashville, Portland, Seattle and Washington D.C. The company previously only had deals in San Francisco, New York and Atlanta.

The Atlanta-based company, founded in 2010, secured the round of funding from New Atlantic Ventures, which also invested an undisclosed angel round.

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Cisco dumps Flip camera division as it refocuses on networking

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 07:21 AM PDT

Proving that its acquisition of Flip camera maker Pure Digital in 2009 was indeed boneheaded, Cisco announced this morning that it will shut down its Flip division as part of a broader consumer business restructuring.

The news is a glaring reminder that Cisco, a company that has traditionally served enterprise markets, tends to find itself flat-footed when it comes to consumer devices. Its $590 million acquisition of Pure Digital made little sense at the time, and Cisco failed to do much with the Flip technology.

Flip's downfall isn't entirely Cisco's fault though: Over the past few years, pocket digital video recorders were quickly supplanted by cellphones capable of shooting high-definition video. For most users, it was easier to just rely on their cellphone for video recording because they didn't need to lug another mobile device, and the recording quality and storage capabilities of phones have steadily improved. Most point-and-shoot cameras also offer HD video recording now, and it's something that even Apple's latest iPod Touch can do.

Cisco says that it will refocus on its home networking technology "for greater profitability and connection to the company’s core networking infrastructure as the network expands into a video platform in the home." Basically, it's going to stick with what it knows.

“We are making key, targeted moves as we align operations in support of our network-centric platform strategy,” Cisco CEO John Chambers said in a statement. “As we move forward, our consumer efforts will focus on how we help our enterprise and service provider customers optimize and expand their offerings for consumers, and help ensure the network’s ability to deliver on those offerings.”

The company will also wrap its Umi video conferencing  system into its Business TelePresence line — that's not too surprising, as the Umi was ridiculously expensive. Cisco says that it will also cut around 550 employees in the fourth quarter of 2011.

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Deals & More: StylistPick raises $8M for personalized shopping tips

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 06:00 AM PDT

Today’s funding announcements include offers and promotions for apparel, cocktails and virtual objects:

StylistPick brings in $8M for trendy fashion hints: The London-based e-commerce site has raised a first round of funding co-led by Accel Partners and Index Ventures to provide users with monthly fashion recommendations. Founded in 2010, the company first identifies a user’s style based on a survey, then sends an email each month with suggestions for shoes and purses. StylistPick, which gives users the option to purchase any item in the email for a flat rate of $65, previously raised a round of seed funding from Index Seed and angel investors.

Poggled grabs $5.6M to promote nightlife: The free nightlife website has raised a second round of funding led by Tom Grossi of New Enterprise Associates to offer drink deals and party packages for bars and nightclubs. Since launching in June 2010, the company, which previously raised funding from Groupon investor Lightbank, has focused on Chicago, though it plans to expand to additional cities soon.

GoldRun gets $1.1M for augmented reality service: The New York-based startup has raised angel funding for its augmented reality mobile app. The service, which launched in November, allows users to receive real-world rewards from brands for their interactions with virtual objects. In 2011, GoldRun plans to expand its offerings to gaming and user-generated content.

Oktogo.ru brings in $5M for online travel site: The Russian hotel booking site has raised a new round of funding led by Skype investor Mangrove Capital with participation from ABRT Venture Fund and Ventech VC, a French fund. Based in St. Petersburg, Russia, the company launched in 2010 and provides users with a hotels database of more than 2000 hotels.

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How to start a business that defies traditional models

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 06:00 AM PDT

(Editor’s note: Mark Edmiston is CEO of Nomad Editions and the former president of Newsweek. He submitted this story to VentureBeat.)

Business models are blueprints.  They force choices early in the developmental process.  While necessary, they can also constrain (much like like construction blueprints).  And ultimately, they’re a critical factor in determining future success.

The problem is: business models are backward facing (based on past experience). In other words, the last time a set of circumstances prevailed, a successful business followed a particular set of rules. However, when the circumstances are novel – and there is no past experience – you have to create a new model.

This is the challenge facing media today, most obviously in print, but also in electronic outlets such as TV and radio. Business models based on exclusivity, well established brands and control of distribution (the essence of the old media business models) are useless in today’s digitized world.

Recognizing that circumstances shift is the first step.  Most existing companies refuse to accept that change has occurred – and attempt to force new facts into an old business model.  This creates an opportunity for new companies to rise during a period of transition, stealing growth from existing businesses by inventing and using new models based on new circumstances.

So, how do you start a business when the models are obsolete?  The answer is simple: Build a new model by realistically assessing the external environment, fearlessly cataloging your assets and liabilities, and realistically estimating the strengths and weaknesses of your (future) competitors.

Here are five things you’ll want to consider while building that model:

Don't assume that a new model is the only way to go – Be sure your company actually needs, or would benefit from, a new business model.  Even in a changing environment, your business opportunities may be served better by altering an existing model.

Don't overestimate the changes – Change happens incrementally, so even though you may be moving in a new direction, your model still needs to be anchored historically.

Don't allow "trying for great" to destroy the good – Just because you are building a new model, focus on the low-hanging fruit before shooting for the stars. Many of the first iPad apps, for example, were dizzyingly digital but slow to download and hard to use.  Sales dropped dramatically after the initial excitement as a result.

Build flexibility into your model – It’s always good, for example, to overestimate the time it will take to achieve your goals.  Like software, it always takes longer and costs more than anyone could have imagined at the beginning.

Expect competition – If you are going to eat your competitors' lunch, they will notice – and will try very hard to prevent you from doing so.  Build competitive response into your model.

Finally, ignore the critics. There will always be someone who doesn't understand what you are doing, or doesn't want to understand.  But, they will have an opinion.  Once you have launched your plan, stick with it until you know it is working or it just cannot work.  Don't give up too soon.

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Victory dance? Ubisoft celebrates as music games shift from guitars to dance

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:00 AM PDT

Adios guitar video games. Hello dance.

Music game fans have shifted their collective taste from Guitar Hero style games to dance games, thanks to the new motion-sensing technologies that make kinetic games much more fun. No one is happier about that than Ubisoft, the French video game publisher that dominates the dance genre. The company’s new dance games represent one of the video game industry’s best chances for a revival of growth on the consoles.

Today, Ubisoft hopes to take another leap ahead of rivals as it launches Michael Jackson The Experience for Microsoft’s Kinect motion-sensing system for the Xbox 360 and Sony’s Move motion-sensing controller for the PlayStation 3. The game debuted on the Nintendo Wii in the fall, shipping more than 3 million units. But this new version has been completely revamped to suit players on the motion platforms.

“Dance games have become the biggest genre in music, and this game is probably the biggest launch of a Kinect game in the first half of 2011,” said Tony Key (pictured below), senior vice president of sales and marketing at Ubisoft in North America. “That’s measured in the size of our campaign and the scope of the title.”

Music games went through a huge ride with the launch of Guitar Hero in 2005. The game, where users played a faux guitar to match the rhythm of music on the screen, was an instant hit. Made on a budget of just $1 million, the title helped music games overtake sports as a game category in 2008. The category grew past $2 billion in the U.S. in 2008, but Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts and MTV milked the genre with one Guitar Hero and Rock Band title after another.

Gamers tired of the sequels and by 2009, the genre began to collapse with sales falling to $1 billion. In 2010, music game sales fell below $400 million, according to analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan. In February, the market got so weak that Activision Blizzard announced it would shut its music game division, laying off hundreds of employees and canceling all further Guitar Hero games.

One interesting thing about the Guitar Hero bubble is that retail sales of Xbox 360 and PS 3 games were artificially inflated by the success of one music games over the last four years. If you take out the music category entirely, those two consoles saw a doubling of their sales during that time. That means that if there is a major hit in the music category, then growth could suddenly come back to the entire video game sector.

Ubisoft scored its first big dance hit in November, 2009, with Just Dance for the Wii. The game sold more than 4 million units. In 2010, Ubisoft came back with Just Dance 2, which sold more than 5 million units. MTV launched for the Kinect. And Ubisoft scored another big hit with the Michael Jackson game on the Wii last November.

“It’s a successful brand already thanks to the Wii game and the Kinect version projects you onto the screen,” Key said. “You get to be the star of his videos.”

The Kinect version is particularly interesting, since Ubisoft uses the Kinect camera to capture a video image of the player. It then pastes that image into the dance sets that the player sees on the screen. You can thus see yourself dance and you have to try to match the movements of the background dancers behind you. The Kinect experience is a lot more interesting than just holding a controller in your hand, as you do with the PlayStation Move or Wii versions of the game.

The dance game uses the same Player Projection technology that Ubisoft developed for the Your Shape fitness video game for the Kinect. You can dance in the same environments as Michael Jackson’s famous videos that were set in pool halls and other familiar places.

The Kinect version also lets you sing like Michael. The Kinect has microphones that listen to your voice and figure out if you’re singing in tune and have the right timing for the lyrics. It’s somewhat forgiving, but you get a good score if you’re a good singer.

So far, the dance genre games are feeding off of each other, much like Guitar Hero and Rock Band did in a few years ago. MTV’s Dance Central did so well that it whet the appetite for more Kinect dance games, Key said. And every time Ubisoft launches a new dance game, the older dance games start selling more units, Key said.

“This new game is the next generation of dance games on Kinect,” Key said. “The category isn’t saturated and it has a lot more potential. There hasn’t been a good dance game made yet for the PlayStation Move. People who liked Dance Central are ready for more and who better to bring it to them than the king of pop?”

Who knows? Maybe Activision Blizzard will jump on the bandwagon and do its own dance game.

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Another Facebook co-founder shows new evidence of alleged Zuckerberg fraud

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 01:10 AM PDT

When Paul Ceglia claimed that he owned 50 percent of Facebook last year and sued Mark Zuckerberg last year, not many people believed him.

Ceglia had waited seven years to file his lawsuit and he was a convicted felon who had been charged with fraud on an unrelated company. Facebook dismissed his claims as fake. Now it looks like this is one headache that won’t go away and could cost the company a lot of money in legal fees — and possible damages.

Ceglia is back and it looks like his lawsuit could be a lot more annoying and difficult to dismiss now. Ceglia has hired a major law firm, DLA Piper, to handle his case. And he has disclosed a number of emails that show that Zuckerberg was trying to bamboozle Ceglia out of his share of the company at the same time Zuckerberg was stalling his work for the Winklevoss twins, who won a $65 million settlement from Facebook.

Facebook told Business Insider that the emails are fabricated.

Orin Snyder, Facebook’s outside counsel at the law firm Gibson Dunn & Crutchr, said, "This is a fraudulent lawsuit brought by a convicted felon, and we look forward to defending it in court. From the outset, we've said that this scam artist's claims are ridiculous and this newest complaint is no better.”

Previously, Ceglia showed that he had a copy of a contract that he and Zuckerberg had signed that showed Zuckerberg was working on a project called “the face book.” Ceglia also had a canceled check for $1,000. Ceglia only had 1 percent ownership of the social network, but his share grew 1 percent for every day that the project remain uncompleted past a certain launch date.

Ceglia has now produced more than a dozen emails between him and Zuckerberg from July 2003 to July 2004, the year when Facebook, which now has more than 600 million users, was born. In the emails, the two discuss the project in detail and how Ceglia will fund it. Ceglia alleges that the emails show that Zuckerberg sandbagged Ceglia and told him “the face book” project wasn’t working out so well. Zuckerberg allegedly offered to send Ceglia $2,000 in funding back in the summer of 2004, right when Zuckerberg had moved to California to develop and raise money for Facebook.

It’s a crazy tale, and if any of it is true, then there just might be a sequel coming to The Social Network movie, which was a partially fictionalized account of how Zuckerberg parted ways with the Winklevoss twins and co-founder Eduardo Saverin.

[photo credit: Business Insider]

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China’s online game market to grow to $8B by 2014

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 12:30 AM PDT

China’s online game market grew 25 percent to $5 billion in 2010 and it could reach $8 billion in 2014, according to Pearl Research.

That rate of growth is faster than the core video game industry in the U.S. and it shows that it’s not so crazy to think that China could rule the new age of video games, as predicted by investment bank Digi-Capital.

In a new 150-page study, the market researcher said that game operators in China saw strong revenue growth last year, led by Tencent with $1.4 billion in revenue for its QQ service social games. Netease.com was second with $749 million in revenue, followd by Shanda Games with $680 million, Perfect World with $374 million, and Changyou with $327 million.

Last year, massively multiplayer online game operator Shenzhen ZQ Game went public in China, becoming the first online game company listed domestically in China on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Pearl Research expects to see many more mergers and acquisitions in 2011 as Chinese game operators, flush with cash, seek to expand overseas and strengthen their game development prowess.

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HTC Thunderbolt and EVO 4G finally getting Android Gingerbread update?

Posted: 11 Apr 2011 09:50 PM PDT

HTC Thunderbolt & EVO 4GThe HTC Thunderbolt and EVO 4G smartphones could get upgraded to the Android 2.3 “Gingerbread” operating system by no later than the end of June, according to a TalkAndroid reader who sent in a message allegedly from an HTC representative.

Despite bountiful company resources, both device manufacturers like HTC and wireless carriers have been dragging their feet when it comes to upgrading their devices to the latest OS, which has been available for nearly six months.

Meanwhile, the hacker community has managed to push unofficial Gingerbread upgrades to the majority of smart phones running older versions of Android natively. The only device that officially runs Gingerbread at the moment is Samsung’s Nexus S, which was made in partnership with Google to run a pure version of the OS without any carrier alterations.

Justifiably, Android phone owners are pissed off that the updates aren’t coming any faster.

Unlike older versions of the iPhone, most Android phones have sufficient hardware requirements to support timely OS updates. However, upgrading to Gingerbread isn’t good for the bottom line of either the carriers or hardware manufacturers, who would rather you buy newer devices featuring Gingerbread instead of getting the update for free.

Via Androidandme

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iPad 2, iPhone 4 gets glasses-free 3D using head tracking (video)

Posted: 11 Apr 2011 09:14 PM PDT

French researchers have managed to develop glasses-free 3D technology for the iPad 2 and iPhone 4 based entirely on how you’re looking at their screens.

The technology is in its early stages now, judging from the video below, but it shows that both the iPhone 4 and iPad 2 (as well as many other devices) can deliver 3D experiences without the need for glasses, and without specialized screens like those found in Nintendo’s new 3DS portable console.

Jeremie Francone and Laurence Nigay from the Engineering Human-Computer Interaction (EHCI) research group at the Grenoble Informatics Laboratory are the mad geniuses behind the video. They say that their head tracking technique relies only on the front-facing cameras in the devices to create a “glasses-free monocular 3D display.” It doesn’t take advantage of the iPad 2 or iPhone 4’s acccelerometer at all — which means that the technique could conceivably be replicated in any device with a camera facing the user.

The duo says they were inspired by the work of Johnny Chung Lee, who showed off a similar glasses-free head tracking demonstration on the Nintendo Wii several years ago.

If it manages to make its way outside of the research phase, the technology could open up the door for glasses-free 3D gaming, 3D model viewing and more on standard device screens. It would also accelerate the push to 3D, which is currently limited by clunky glasses and expensive glasses-free 3D screens.

Via Electronista and Macstories

VB Mobile SummitCalling all mobile executives: This April 25-26, VentureBeat is hosting its inaugural VentureBeat Mobile Summit, where we’ll debate the five key business and policy challenges facing the mobile industry today. Participants will develop concrete, actionable solutions that will shape the future of the mobile industry. The invitation-only event, located at the scenic and relaxing Cavallo Point Resort in Sausalito, Calif., is limited to 180 mobile executives, investors and policymakers. We’ve pretty much finalized the invite list, but have a few spots left. Request an invitation.

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Resurrected Bebo gets a facelift

Posted: 11 Apr 2011 09:00 PM PDT

bebo homepageSocial networking site Bebo has only been in the news sporadically since AOL sold it to Criterion Capital Partners last June, but the company says it has been steadily rolling out new features. Today, it's unveiling a redesigned home page.

The redesign doesn't look like a dramatic shift, but it's another sign that the team is continuing efforts to revitalize the site — as a spokesperson told me, at Bebo "the culture has shifted back to that of a sleepless start up."

According to a Bebo blog post, the home page has now been "placed on a diet to reduce unnecessary clutter and place more focus onto what’s important, the new Feed." The Bebo news feed has been expanded to show more information about user comments and to add Bebo's take on the Facebook "like" button. Instead of just liking something, Bebo users can respond to comments and updates with one of four "emotion markers" — Cool, Funny, Sorry, or OMG.

Other changes include a more prominent notifications menu and a new feed highlighting activity for each individual user. This is on top of recent additions to the site that include friend suggestions, video chat, and Facebook Connect integration.

If you're still inclined to count Bebo out, it's worth remembering that the company has brought in some high-profile names as well. Bebo co-founder Michael Birch invested in the site again and serves as an advisor, while Xbox co-creator Kevin Bachus joined as chief product officer.

A spokesman said that after the acquisition, Bebo's traffic jumped to 12 million unique visitors per month, then fell to 10 million. As the company added new features, traffic climbed again, most recently to 12.7 million uniques. And mobile traffic has doubled from 750 million to 1.6 billion pageviews per month.

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Google’s new trivia game demands that you search

Posted: 11 Apr 2011 08:18 PM PDT

Google Trivia GameGoogle's new trivia game defies conventional rules by requiring players to perform search queries to find the answer to a daily question.

It's called A Google a Day and beyond being a game that will attract web savvy pub quiz aficionados, it may serve multiple purposes for the search engine giant, especially after the company's recent reorganization by new CEO Larry Page.

Probably the most obvious reason for creating a game like this is that it reveals new data on how users are searching for ultra specific pieces of information, and in ways that were previously only discovered by deduction of whatever data was available. Having users seek out predetermined results (using the search tool on agoogleaday.com, which doesn't contain real-time results that might reveal the answer and ruin the game) allows Google to reverse engineer how they're currently tracking and evaluating data.

Daily questions will apparently be more difficult to solve as it gets closer to the end of the week, according to a post on Google's official blog by User Experience Researcher Dan Russell. Answers will be revealed the following day as well as what search methods were employed to find that answer.

While A Google A Day is more puzzle-based than an actual mini game, it's still the company's first serious step into the space. And with the rise in gaming on mobile devices, it's a perfect breeding ground for social success as well as advertising revenue potential. It wouldn't be surprising to see more puzzle game projects in the company's future.

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The NYT paywall seems to hurt traffic. Is that a problem?

Posted: 11 Apr 2011 06:12 PM PDT

nytimesWe're still very early into The New York Times' paywall experiment, but research company Experian Hitwise is already collecting data on how the move has affected traffic to NYTimes.com. Its finding? Traffic is down.

Specifically, the company looked at the site for 12 days before and after the paywall went up, and found that traffic was down almost every day afterward. Visits were down an average of 5 to 15 percent, while pageviews declined 11 to 30 percent. The one exception was April 9, when the number of visitors was actually up 7 percent, presumably because readers wanted to find out about the narrowly-averted government shutdown.

Now, it's way too early to say anything definitive about The Times' traffic, especially since Hitwise was comparing relatively short periods of time, but the fact that the numbers were down consistently suggests a significant change in reader behavior.

If there is a change, it's not exactly surprising. A website doesn't put up a paywall because it wants to increase its readership but because it wants to make money from the readers it has. A drop in traffic is only natural, and it doesn't say much about the numbers The Times really cares about — how many readers are signing up for a subscription.

The real danger is if the decline continues. The Times has said that the vast majority of readers should never encounter a paywall because they can view 20 articles per month for free, and they can also follow links from search engines, social networks, and other websites without being blocked.

The challenge is to remain open to visitors while also convincing a dedicated minority to pay. If, instead, The Times is frightening casual visitors away because they're worried about the paywall, or if the more frequent readers choose to read less rather than pay, then the company may want to rethink its plans.

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